The Impact of a Warming Arctic on International Shipping

This book aims to provide a picture of today’s developments, opportunities and imponderables for Arctic transit shipping in both the Russian and Canadian Arctic with hands-on information for shipowners, environmentalists and representatives of international governmental bodies. The image of a potentially soon navigable Arctic Ocean has stirred worldwide public attention but was too often blurred by factually incorrect sensationalism and geopolitical sabre-rattling. This book offers a realistic overview of what we can expect from Arctic Shipping, how soon opportunities will develop and what difficulties remain to make the century-old dream of a shortcut from Europe to Asia reality. First, the recent macro environment for shipping along Arctic routes is investigated. This includes an analysis of climate models, sea ice projections and local conditions from a seafarer’s point of view. How long will the navigable season become in the future? How reliable are those predictions and does that mean that by the end of the century the Arctic Ocean will be a shipping lane like the Suez Canal today? Further, available infrastructure, legal controversies and environmental issues are presented. Second, the suitability of potential new routes for commercial traffic is discussed. This comprises a review of present-day studies on profitability, identification of key performance factors and an evaluation of interviews conducted with leading industry representatives. The book answers the question whether the Arctic routes are at all compatible with modern liner shipping and for which shipping sectors it might be particularly interesting.